Gradually, then Suddenly

Hey Lantern Community,

The news feels heavy right now.

War in Iran.

Bitcoin is down ~46% from its October peak.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is sitting in "extreme fear" territory (somewhere around 14 out of 100).

Gold is hitting all-time highs while crypto sells off.

If you've been watching the charts, it's not pretty.

We get it. When you have a loan against your crypto, red candles are not what you want to see. So today, we're not going to talk about tomorrow's price. Instead, we want to take you on a quick trip through crypto history.

Because history has a pattern, and it's one worth knowing.

The last three times this happened

Crypto has been through four major bear markets since Bitcoin's inception. Each one looked, at the time, like it might be the end.

2013–2015: The Mt. Gox Collapse

Bitcoin peaked at ~$1,100 in late 2013. Then the world's largest exchange, Mt. Gox, got hacked and lost 850,000 Bitcoin. The price collapsed 86% over the next 14 months, bottoming around $150. Headlines declared crypto dead and most people sold and never came back.

Then, gradually, it recovered. And then suddenly, in 2017, Bitcoin hit $20,000.

2017–2018: The ICO Crash

Bitcoin peaked at ~$20,000 in December 2017. Regulators cracked down on initial coin offerings. The speculative bubble burst. The price fell 84% over 12 months, bottoming around $3,200. "Crypto is dead" articles proliferated. Again.

Then, gradually, it recovered. And then suddenly, in 2020 and 2021, Bitcoin hit $69,000.

2021–2022: The Terra/FTX Winter

Bitcoin peaked at ~$69,000 in November 2021. Terra collapsed. Three Arrows Capital collapsed. Celsius collapsed. BlockFi collapsed. FTX collapsed. The contagion was historic. The price fell ~77% over roughly a year, bottoming around $15,800 in late 2022.

Then, gradually, it recovered. And then suddenly, in October 2025, Bitcoin hit $126,200 at a new all-time high.

What's different this time?

Honestly? Quite a lot but in crypto's favor.

In 2022, there was no institutional demand (spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury buyers, BlackRock, Fidelity, MicroStrategy).

Today, those buyers exist, and they're still buying.

In 2022, every major crypto lender was secretly rehypothecating client funds, making undercollateralized bets, and operating on fractional reserves. When the market dropped, the dominoes fell.

Today, that infrastructure has been cleaned out. The companies that survived are the ones that didn't play those games.

The current drawdown (~46% from the $126k peak) fits squarely inside what every prior post-halving correction looked like.

This is, historically speaking, the script.

What "gradually, then suddenly" actually means for you

Crypto recoveries don't announce themselves.

There's no headline that reads "Bear Market Officially Over." The turning point is only obvious in retrospect.

What actually happens is quieter. Long-term holders stop selling, and exchange outflows start increasing as people move crypto to cold storage. Institutional buyers keep buying on autopilot through ETF inflows. And then, one day, the price is 40% higher than it was. Then 80%.

Then it's a new all-time high, and everyone acts surprised. That's the "suddenly" part.

The people who benefited most from every prior recovery were the ones who simply held through the "gradually" part.

Your loan and the long game

If you're reading this with a Lantern loan open, here's what we want you to understand:

Your crypto is safe with BitGo. It's sitting in custody, waiting for you.

Our 50% max LTV and 72-hour margin call window were built specifically for moments like this. During October 10th's flash crash, our borrowers had zero liquidations. Because our structure wasn't designed to fail our borrowers when things got hard.

And that has been our promise since Day 1.

Want to review your loan position or check your margin of safety?

Call/text us: (415) 365-0100 or log in at: https://lantern.finance/borrow

Until next time,

The Lantern Team

This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market performance is not indicative of future results. Crypto markets are volatile. Always consult your financial advisor before making any financial decisions.