Hormuz Is Closed Again But Crypto Keeps Climbing

Hey Lantern Community,

The June peace deal between the US and Iran fell apart this week, oil ripped to a one-month high, and Bitcoin got dragged down with it before a soft inflation print pulled it back. The CLARITY Act hit another wall in the Senate, and an XRP treasury firm just planted a flag in Japan. Let's get into it.

But first, market update!

The ceasefire cracked

The June memorandum that stopped the US-Iran fighting collapsed. By Monday, July 13, US Central Command was running strikes on Iran for a third straight day, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard hit two oil supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz and fired on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Iran declared the Strait closed until further notice. Transits through the world's most important oil chokepoint fell more than 50% over the weekend. Brent crude jumped 9.6% on Monday and another 3.8% on Tuesday to $85.92 a barrel, its highest since June 15.

We called the June ceasefire fragile when it was signed. This is why. A deal isn't done until both sides stop shooting, and this one didn't hold. Higher oil prices feed straight into inflation, which is the last thing a rate-sensitive market wants to see.

Cooler inflation pulled crypto back

June CPI came in at 3.5% year over year, below the 3.8% expected and down from May's 4.2%. Prices actually fell 0.4% on the month, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020.

June PPI fell 0.3% (marking its first monthly decline in 10 months), and the annual rate dropped to 5.5% from 6.0%, pulled down by a 12% fall in gasoline.

That took a July 29 rate hike off the table for now. Bitcoin had slid to about $61,600 earlier in the week on the oil scare, then climbed back toward $65,000 after the print. Ethereum jumped almost 5% in an hour.

The CLARITY Act hit another wall

The bill meant to give crypto real rules is still stuck. The Senate came back from recess on July 13 with no floor vote scheduled, and on July 14 three Democrats held a press conference calling it a "corrupt" bill unless it bans officials, including the president, from personal crypto dealings.

Prediction markets have noticed. Odds of passage fell from the low 70s to about 43%. A revised draft is expected within days, and the House holds a field hearing on July 17. The clock is the real problem. If it doesn't clear the Senate before the August recess, its chances drop hard.

An XRP treasury is heading to Nasdaq

Evernorth, an XRP treasury firm backed by a $200 million commitment from Japan's SBI Holdings, is moving toward a Nasdaq listing under the ticker XRPN through a merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. It already holds around $685 million in XRP, with more than $1 billion in committed capital behind the plan.

On July 12 it opened a Japanese-language channel as a first test market, tied to SBI's existing XRP network in the country. The pattern underneath is the one we keep flagging. The price sits flat while the treasuries stacking XRP get bigger. If you hold XRP as collateral, that's the base you want under it.

Holding through the chop and need liquidity? Bitcoin-backed loans at Lantern start at 8%, funded same-day including weekends, and your collateral never touches a smart contract.

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Until next week, The Lantern Team

This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with your financial advisor before making lending decisions.