Bitcoin Holds Steady. Ripple Bets $750M On Itself.

Hey Lantern Community,

Last week, we talked about how recoveries happen Gradually, then Suddenly. Since then, the "Gradually" part has been put to a severe stress test. From the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision yesterday to the overnight headlines out of the Middle East, the world is moving fast.

In times like these, the goal isn't to predict the next candle but to ensure your foundation is unshakeable. Here is where the market stands today.

Lantern’s Notes

• The Fed Holds Steady: As expected, the FOMC concluded its March meeting yesterday by holding interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Chair Powell noted that while inflation is cooling, the "geopolitical risk premium" in energy markets remains a wildcard.

• Qatar Escalation: Overnight reports of a missile strike on the Ras Laffan LNG complex in Qatar sent natural gas prices soaring. This expands the conflict's theater beyond the Strait of Hormuz, putting roughly 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply at risk.

Market Trends

The "Uncoupling" of Risk:

The most significant trend this week is Bitcoin’s behavior. Despite the escalation in Qatar, Bitcoin has largely held the $70,000 level we reclaimed last week. While equities and energy markets are reacting with "twitchy" volatility to every headline, Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a neutral liquidity reserve. We are seeing a "flight to quality" within the digital asset space. The 20 millionth Bitcoin was mined just days ago, reminding the market that while fiat supply and energy costs are subject to geopolitical whims, Bitcoin’s supply is programmatic and indifferent to conflict. We are in a consolidation phase, building a higher floor as institutional buyers (ETFs) absorb the "panic selling" from retail.

Bitcoin’s Resilience

Bitcoin has just broken through a big “traffic jam” price range between $59,000 and $72,000, where lots of earlier buyers might have wanted to sell and break even. This clears the road ahead, opening up smoother sailing toward around $82,000, with help from returning big investors, money flowing back into Bitcoin funds (called ETFs), and some pessimistic traders now forced to buy back in.

The key point they highlight is that right now only 60% of all Bitcoin is profitable for its owners. Which is a level that, in past bull markets, often meant several bumpy false starts before a strong upward run really took off. Overall, it’s encouraging news for people who own or are betting on Bitcoin going higher.

Source: Glassnode

XRP’s $750 million share buyback

Ripple has launched a $750 million share buyback, valuing the company at $50 billion. This is a 25% increase from its $40 billion valuation in November, despite the broader market downturn.

Backed by a massive cash reserve, the move signals internal confidence that a higher valuation is imminent as their National Trust Bank charter nears full approval.

Ripple has officially filed for a "skinny" Federal Reserve master account. This would allow Ripple to settle transactions directly on the Fed’s rails. A privilege traditionally reserved for legacy banks.

Built for the "Suddenly"

In a week where energy infrastructure was physically attacked, the value of digital infrastructure becomes clear.

• Custody: Your collateral remains in BitGo’s institutional cold storage, disconnected from the volatility of the legacy banking system.

• Buffer: With Bitcoin stabilizing above $70k, the average "Margin of Safety" for our borrowers has increased since last Thursday.

• Our Promise: We provide the rails for you to hold your assets through the storm.

Also, our Bitcoin-backed loans rates are now 8%.

Still uncertain about the market?

Call/text us: (415) 365-0100 or lock in your lower rates now: https://lantern.finance/borrow

Until next week,

The Lantern Team

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.