Ceasefire signed. Oil crashes and markets recover.
A signed US-Iran peace deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and sent Brent crude down 35% in a single session. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50-3.75%, while XRP sentiment hit 2026 lows even as institutional ETF inflows kept climbing.
By Lantern Finance
18 Jun 2026
Hey Lantern Community,
The Iran peace deal landed today and The Strait of Hormuz is reopening.
But the Fed just made sure this isn't a straight line up.
The war is over
Conflict between US and Iran ended with a signed peace deal this morning.
Both sides halt military operations and Iran promised to reopen The Strait. Brent crude crashed 35%, falling from $120 to $78.29 in a single session. That's the fastest oil unwind since the COVID crash in March 2020.
But that’s good news. Cheaper oil means lower inflation expectations. Lower inflation expectations mean a friendlier Fed. A friendlier Fed means risk assets like BTC can breathe.
The Fed held rates
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50-3.75% at his first FOMC meeting. On paper, that's unchanged. The tone wasn't.
The updated dot plot shows inflation not returning to 2% until 2028. That's two more years of elevated rates than the market wanted to hear.
Warsh said the current policy rate "may just be at the level it needs to be." He's focused on a strong dollar and price stability.
What this means for you as a borrower: rates staying higher for longer is a headwind for risk assets. But the peace deal removes the inflation accelerator. Net effect: less panic, but no rate cuts coming soon. Plan accordingly.
XRP sentiment is in the gutter but institutions don't care
XRP weighted sentiment hit -0.908 on June 14, the lowest reading of 2026, and the crowd is bearish.
But the money says otherwise. XRP spot ETFs just notched another week of net inflows, with about 10.7 million added last week and 1.44 billion in cumulative inflows since launch. Institutional allocation remains in positive territory, even as sentiment hits 2026 lows.
When sentiment and flows diverge this sharply, flows usually win. If you're holding XRP as collateral, just know that institutions are buying what retail is selling.
Manage your portfolio here: https://lantern.finance/dashboard
Until next time, The Lantern Team
This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with your financial advisor before making lending decisions.
